Tunisia will likely achieve many of the MDGs given the progress it made before the recent revolution. The country cannot become complacent, though; serious gaps remain, particularly in lowering the maternal mortality rate and providing more access to basic sanitation. To close these gaps and also meet targets for primary education, child mortality and access to drinking water, the Government would have to raise spending by 5-6% of GDP. Meeting the target for maternal mortality would be the most expensive.

Macroeconomic indicators in alternative MDG-financing scenarios, 2006-2015

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Injection of additional financing to achieve the development goals can have various macroeconomic consequences in Tunisia, depending on the source of funding. Domestic borrowing and increased taxation are likely to crowd-out domestic consumption and investments, which, in turn, would slow the growth of economic activity. In any case, resource mobilization through domestic savings may not be an option given the likely negative economic impact of the recent revolution and declining workers' remittances on household incomes.

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Foreign aid requirements to finance the cost of the MDGs, 2011-2015

In reaction to the recent political changes and constitutional amendments, the international donor community has pledged financial support to Tunisia. The country does indeed need foreign aid to reconstruct its political system, spur economic growth and finance development goals. It is estimated that, on average, a minimum increase of 6% of GDP per year in foreign aid would be needed to finance key development goals.