6.1
What are the socioeconomic impacts of global population growth and population ageing?
The world’s population has more than tripled in size since the middle of the twentieth century, increasing from around 2.5 billion in 1950 to almost 7.9 billion in 2021.
However, in the longer term, the global population is projected to reach a peak around 2100, bringing an end to the current era of rapid growth.
In addition, the age distribution of the world’s population is gradually shifting towards older ages. Population ageing is occurring in almost all countries of the world, albeit at different levels and with different speeds. All countries are projected to experience increases in the median age of the population and in the proportion of older persons. However, the scope and impact of ageing will vary considerably across countries. For example, in many developing countries, the population is still relatively young but is ageing faster than it did in developed countries.
Population ageing is fundamentally a demographic success story, driven by the reductions in mortality and fertility that are associated with economic and social development. However, population ageing is also often associated with fiscal pressures affecting public pension systems, depending also on government policies concerning the allocation of resources to different age groups.
In many developing countries, the population is still relatively young but is ageing faster than it did in developed countries.
Such systems can be made more sustainable by gradually raising the retirement age in tandem with the increase in life expectancy. Such changes, however, should take into account the special needs of persons engaged in hazardous and demanding occupations.
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Ageing and population growth are also factors that drive migration. While some large countries might be able to adjust internally, without migrants, many countries would be unable to adjust to domestic demographic trends.
A recent report by UN DESA, Global Population Growth and Sustainable Development, examines the linkages between global population growth and the social, economic and environmental dimensions of sustainable development. The report is part of a series on major demographic trends, and subsequent reports will examine issues related to population ageing and international migration.
Over the rest of the twenty-first century, some countries will see their populations continue to grow, while others will experience stability or population decline.
Given that few historical lessons have been learned from population decline, there must be more reflection on what decline means in terms of economic and social policies, such as maintaining production systems, and education and social protection measures including pensions, urban planning and migration policies.
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And while population decline is more prominent among developed countries in the North, similar changes are projected in the coming decades even for developing countries whose populations are still relatively young.
6.2
In the current context of ageing societies, increasing attention is being paid to the role of the care economy.
Why is it important and how can it be better recognized as part of the greater economy?
The care economy, especially unpaid care work, is a neglected aspect of economic and social development.
Standard economic statistics as well as traditional economic theory and policy do not give due consideration to the informal care economy, even though the need for care work is on the rise globally. Formal long-term care is not available in many countries, particularly in the developing world. Differences in this regard between developed and developing countries also need to be better understood.
Formal long-term care is not available in many countries.
The care economy has important implications for economic resilience and employment in the long term. Care work generates high employment multipliers.
While the types of long-term care services needed vary, strategies to improve care work should:
universally recognize unpaid care work and reduce unpaid care work through labour-saving devices
rebalance care work between governments, the private sector and individual households
remunerate care workers properly
represent care workers interests
Further, all countries should recognize the need to adopt and adhere to accreditation and qualification standards and the certification of paid care work.
Without these improvements, the burden and negative consequences of unpaid care work will continue to disproportionately affect women. Eliminating this important source of marginalization will require measuring the unpaid contributions that individuals make to the economy.
More generally, we should reconsider how we measure societal progress. Assessing the way in which a person’s work is not only a commercial output, but also provides social and environmental benefits, could provide a basis for redefining productivity.
Following the high number of deaths from COVID-19 among residents at long-term facilities, there are concerns about the loss of public confidence in these institutions, leading to calls for a reimagining of
care and support services for older persons.
Countries should promote long-term care and support services for older persons as a positive social and economic investment and opportunity for employment growth by positioning the sector at the heart of the care economy and as a contribution to sustainable development.
